We’ve a couple more polls in MN, the toplines are predictable so here’s the “internals” of the Survey USA poll and some of the internals from the Strib/MPR/Mason-Dixon poll. Survey USA is an A rated pollster and Mason-Dixon B+ rated by 538, so no junk polling here, with MOEs under 5%. Like the previous polls of the MN senate and gov races, the dem candidates lead by MOE or greater in most tests, so those races are pretty much over. So no surprise that the RGA (Republican Governors Association) has cancelled TV time in Minnesota. That’s probably just the beginning of GOP and GOP friend’s money migrating out of Minnesota and especially out of the metro districts in the Midwest.
Take a look at 538’s “best in the business” U.S. House predictions- As of this morning GOP held suburban MN Congressional Districts (CDs) 2 and 3 were rated “Likely D” while rural Dem held MN1 was rated “Lean R”, MN7 “Likely D” and MN8 “toss up”. There’s a similar trend in Iowa where more northeast IA GOP held CD1 is rated “Likely D” and more rural southwest IA CD3 is rated “toss up”. Further down the I-29 Corridor GOP held seats NE2 (Omaha) is rated “Lean D” and KS2 (suburban KC,KS) is rated “toss up”. To a lesser degree this pattern is seen nationwide, with 538 predicting “likely D” outcomes in about a dozen GOP held districts, mostly in the suburbs. Take a look at 538’s U.S. Senate predictions- They show control of the Senate coming down to two “toss up” states, and one of them is North Dakota. If I ever get halfway rich I’m gonna buy a NoDak TV station before election year so I can get really rich!
Clearly the GOP needs firewalls, lifelines, and downright miracles at this point, so we can expect the GOP and their wealthy friends to pull their millions of ad $$$ out of suburban districts they’ve already lost and try to block the blue wave by winning rural districts like MN1 and MN8. Even MN7 where Democrat Colin Peterson survived the Trump wave and is rated “Likely D” by 538 is a likely GOP target, what with the district being rated R+12. Unfortunately the MN DFL is playing right into this GOP strategy with the much vaunted DFL bus being a no show at the big Worthington Turkey Day Parade in MN1 Saturday. Fortunately the local DFLers and governor candidate Walz didn’t get the memo and along with the UFCW local union turned out a block long parade contingent.
So “big D Democrats” and wealthy friends, get with the program: The electoral battle has shifted to the countryside, now move your massive resources there and breech the GOP’s “firewall”. At ground level, in MN and many other states many rural voters will start getting mail in ballots later this week and early voting begins Friday… We dems need to concentrate on these mail ballot precincts to get democratic votes “banked” before the GOP attack ad onslaught begins!